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Lithium September 2023
Argentina – the Rising Star

Argentina has the world’s largest pipeline of lithium projects with 16 projects in advanced development and 20 projects at an early exploration stage. AME estimates that Argentina’s production will be 108kt LCE in 2023, up from 30kt in 2022.

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Nickel September 2023
The Indonesian HPAL Empire

Rising demand from the battery industry has driven significant nickel sulphate production growth. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly turning to MHP as their preferred feedstock for dissolution, mainly due to its cost advantage over class 1 briquettes. This has kickstarted a flurry of high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) developments in Indonesia, a country renowned for possessing the world’s richest laterite reserve.

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Iron Ore September 2023
Seaborne DR Pellet Supply

The shift to green steel is driving demand for low carbon metallics. As a result, interest in the DR pellets value chain has soared. DR pellets are an essential input for producing direct reduced iron (DRI), which is a highly pure form of iron, and is often used as a feedstock along with steel scrap to produce steel in the electric arc furnace (EAF). DR pellet has a typical Fe content above 66%, higher than typical of blast furnace (BF) pellets.

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Gold August 2023
Canada’s Future Paved in Gold

Canada’s mined gold production is still expected to increase to 6.8Moz in 2023, up from 6.1Moz in 2022. The ramp-up of projects, such as Victoria Gold’s Eagle mine, will support production growth this year. Eagle is expected to produce 160-180koz this year, up from 150koz last year.

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Gold July 2023
Australian Gold Boosted by New Projects

Australia’s mined gold production is expected to reach 11.4Moz in 2023, up 3% on-year, and further increase to 13.1Moz in 2025, as production ramps up from new mines and expansions.

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Thermal Coal in Transition June 2023
Is Colombia Finally Done?

As Europe looks to phase out thermal coal, demand for Colombian exports has been in decline in recent years. That has led to a few key producers ceasing operations, given that Europe accounts for 30% of imports of Colombian thermal coal.

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Gold June 2023
The Fate of Russian Gold

The US last month slapped fresh sanctions on Polyus and Polymetal's Russian unit—Russia's biggest gold miners—which produced 2.5Moz and 1.7Moz of gold, respectively, last year. They are both in the top 10 of mined gold producers in the world.

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Iron Ore June 2023
China’s Path to Green Steel

China's state-backed Metallurgical Mines’ Association of China (MMAC) has released the national green iron ore production guideline. The guideline aims to accelerate the construction of 25 iron ore mining hubs and develop 28 state-backed mining projects and eliminate low-efficiency and high-energy consumption iron ore mines.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) June 2023
Germany’s Import Dependency

Natural gas comprised a little less than a 25% of Germany’s primary energy use in 2022, making it the country’s second most important energy source. Germany is among the world’s biggest natural gas importers with 95% of its gas consumption met by imports.

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Nickel June 2023
Indonesia – Heart of the Nickel Empire

Indonesia will continue to be the driver of growth in nickel developments, as global energy transition efforts ramp up. Finished production grew by a staggering 32% in 2022 from ballooning ferronickel capacity. This growth is expected to moderate, as the market remains in massive oversupply, bringing annual production to 1,239kt in 2023.

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Steel June 2023
K-Pop Steel Demand

AME’s finished steel demand forecast for Korea in 2023 and 2024 is 57Mt and 59Mt, an increase of 1% and 4%, respectively, year on year. The Bank of Korea expects GDP to be just under 2% for 2023 and 2024.

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Lithium June 2023
US Looks to Domestic Lithium

While US lithium production is relatively small, output is expected to surge in 2024 when new projects come online. Albemarle’s Silver Peak in Nevada, the country's only operating mine, will double in capacity to 10kt LCE by 2025. AME expects US lithium supply to average 5kt LCE in 2023 and jump to 22kt LCE in 2024.

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Hydrogen May 2023
Is Australia Falling Behind?

Australia is ideally placed to have an important role in the global hydrogen industry. The country has a high renewable energy potential and abundant land space to support renewable electricity generation. Combined with a skilled workforce and ample resources, Australia is expected to become a leading exporter of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen.

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Aluminium May 2023
Jamaica’s Alumina Supply

Jamaica's alumina production has taken a hit in recent years due to the closure of its largest refineries: Alpart and Jamalco. This has left only the relatively small Ewarton refinery operating for a stretch of time in 2022. However, the restart of Jamalco and the eventual return of Alpart offer a promising supply upside in the medium term.

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Metallurgical Coal May 2023
The Teck-over, the Break’s Over

Canadian mining firm Teck Resources (Teck) announced in late February its plans to separate its operations into two independent, publicly-listed companies—Teck Metals Corp (Teck Metals), and Elk Valley Resources Ltd. (EVR).

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Gold May 2023
Cost Pressures

Gold miners are feeling the pressure of higher costs, driven by still-hot inflation, which is weighing down financial results, despite strong gold prices. Those with lower volumes are particularly feeling the pinch.

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Nickel May 2023
The Philippine Nickel Dilemma

The Philippines is the second largest nickel miner in the world, after Indonesia. In 2022, its mined production accounted for 11.2% of global supply. Mining activities are usually limited in the March Quarter due to heavy rain. Ore is largely exported as direct shipping ore, with over 97% going to China’s stainless-steel sector.

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Steel May 2023
Slam Dunks and Home Runs

AME’s forecasts crude steel production in the US to reach 92Mt in 2023, a 15% jump from the previous year. A goal of self-reliance within the country’s manufacturing industries has been prominent since early 2018, when the government imposed at 25% import tariff on steel products.

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Iron Ore May 2023
Australia's Magnetite Mines

Australia has the largest reserves of iron ore, located in the Hamersley Basin of the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The primary haematite ores produced are the dominant iron ores mined and exported. Haematite ores require minimal processing before transport to customers (direct shipping ore or DSO), such as iron ore from BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG.

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Lithium May 2023
Can Africa Become a Major Player?

The race to mine and refine lithium is accelerating around the globe with a wave of new projects expected to come online this year. Africa, a region not traditionally associated with lithium mining, is no exception to the growing list of projects. Countries such as Zimbabwe, Mali, and Ghana are expected to become significant lithium exporters in the near future.

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Copper May 2023
Scrap’s Essential Role in Decarbonisation

As countries continue to push their decarbonisation targets, increasing environmental requirements will potentially lead to a greater preference for scrap and recycled material in order to avoid energy intensive primary materials.

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EVs & Batteries May 2023
Europe Looks to Recycling

Glencore plans to build Europe’s largest battery recycling plant as companies battle for control over the supply of critical raw materials needed by electric vehicle makers. The move comes as upcoming EU sustainable batteries regulation is expected to dramatically increase demand for recycled materials.

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LNG May 2023
Rules For Thee But Not For Me: Russian LNG vs. Gas

Despite the sanctions upon sanctions placed on Russia by European and western-aligned nations, Russia’s LNG exports to Europe have hit new records. While gas pipeline supply has been largely cut off and oil languishes under a US$60/bbl price cap, LNG out of Russia continues to grow stronger than ever as Europe’s need for fuel circumvents the political arena.

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Metallurgical Coal May 2023
Safeguard Mechanism

Australian coal mines produced an estimated ~1.6Mt of methane in 2022. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that can rapidly accelerate global heating, trapping 82.5 times more heat than carbon dioxide over 20 years.

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Thermal Coal in Transition April 2023
Creating More from Within, Seeking Less from Without

India’s coal production jumped 9% on the year to 86.6Mt in February 2023. The country’s coal ministry data reported a 15% rise to 785.24Mt from April to February. With India focusing on expanding domestic production, state-run Coal India (CIL) lifted its coal output by 7% on the year to 68.8Mt in February.

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LNG April 2023
One Year on: LNG After Ukraine

A year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the LNG market has been rapidly realigned, becoming more expensive, more concentrated and less flexible in favour of the developed nations with major import infrastructure.

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Iron Ore April 2023
Japan’s Declining Iron Ore Demand

Japan’s declining iron ore demand is correlated with lower steel demand, which is being caused by Japan’s ageing population, China’s rapid rise in dominance, and economic growth in emerging Asian countries (ex-China).

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Gas in Transition (Oil) April 2023
China-Russia Bilateral Energy Relationship

China imported increased volumes of Russian energy last year. Russia was China’s second largest supplier of crude oil, after Saudi Arabia, delivering 1.7 million barrels per day (Mbpd), which accounted for 17% of China’s imports (up from 16% in 2021) and 35% of Russia’s exports (up from 31% in 2021).

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Aluminium April 2023
The Rise of Secondary Aluminium

Secondary (or recycled) aluminium is produced from scrap recovered from aluminium manufacturing waste or aluminium products that have reached their end-of-life. The secondary metal requires ~95% less energy than its primary counterpart, offering a near-equivalent reduction in carbon emissions.

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Metallurgical Coal April 2023
Green Dream

The green steel transition is set to change the value chain in the steel and metallurgical industry. The change is expected to be a gradual one, with a phase-in of green steel facilities starting in the most advanced economies.

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Lithium April 2023
Europe’s New Battery Hot Spot

Europe was the second largest electric car market with nearly 2.2m plug-in sales across 2022. German brands led the sales in Europe with BMW and Mercedes-Benz taking the top 2 spots in the market share (8.8% and 8.4% respectively). Tesla was the third best-selling brand for EVs across Europe, with its Model Y crowned the best-selling EV.

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EVs & Batteries April 2023
Europe’s Battery Prospects in Face of US IRA

Battery makers say they are encouraged by Brussels’ response to the Inflation Reduction Act, but urged that quick action is needed to avoid investment being drained to the US. Since it was signed off last year, the IRA has sparked panic among European policymakers as the US$369bn package of subsidies and tax incentives for green technology lures European companies across the Atlantic.

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Nickel April 2023
The Battery Drive

Global EV sales totalled 10.4m in 2022, having grown by a staggering 58% from 2021. Sales are forecast to continue climbing, reaching 14m in 2023 and 17.4m in 2024. Nickel demand from the battery sector alone is estimated to be 364kt in 2023, accounting for ~12% of total finished demand.

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Copper April 2023
Hunt for Copper

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are becoming an increasingly common strategy in the copper industry, as companies look to capitalise on the growth potential of copper under the net-zero era. With an eye toward securing their place in a rapidly evolving market, producers are actively seeking opportunities to expand their production capacity, diversify their portfolio and gain a competitive edge through M&A activity.

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Gold April 2023
Gold’s Path to Net-Zero

Gold miners are stepping up efforts to decarbonise their operations amid intensifying pressure from governments and investors to act on climate change. Newmont, the world’s biggest gold miner, has committed to a 32% absolute reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 (2.4Mt CO2Eq), from 2018 (3.57Mt CO2Eq).

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Hydrogen April 2023
Kickstarting the US Hydrogen Economy

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was signed into law in August 2022, is expected to accelerate the development of the hydrogen economy. Through the largest hydrogen subsidies in the world, the IRA will support the deployment of green hydrogen production across the United States.

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Steel April 2023
CBAM is Coming

The European Commission launched a Green Deal programme in December 2019, which provided a framework for environmental targets and methods for implementation. The agenda included climate change policies and proposals to reform the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Since the introduction of the EU ETS in 2005, the bloc’s emissions have been reduced by 41%.

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Solar Farms March 2023
World Records in Solar Cell Technology

Solar developers in the US and Europe are improving Perovskite and tandem efficiency and bringing them into the commercial space. Financial support in the US Inflation Reduction Act and a new package of measures pledged by the European Union last month should help perovskite developers move from pilot to commercial-scale factories.

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Wind Farms March 2023
New Offshore Wind Policies in Europe

The UK delayed the decision for Ørsted’s 2.6GW Hornsea Four offshore wind project in the North Sea, 69km off the Yorkshire Coast. The Planning Inspectorate announced that the deadline for the decision on the development consent application has been extended to 12th July from 22nd February.

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LNG March 2023
Southeast Asia’s LNG Future

Southeast Asia is a region with enduring potential for the LNG market. Massive demand growth prospects and rapidly developing industrial sectors promise to increase demand for energy and natural gas. LNG provides an opportunity that the southern nations have seized upon to develop the sector. However, the region’s interests could be served by a collaborative effort to develop the LNG sector.

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Oil Refineries March 2023
US Biggest Refiners Cautious Capacity Expansion

US refiners are operating at the highest operating rate since before the pandemic, but they are not expected to bring relief to the tight fuel market through major capacity expansions in the short term.

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Nickel March 2023
Made in America

The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law in August 2022, aims to restrain inflation rates while pushing for domestic clean energy development. A total of US$369bn has been allocated to climate solutions. A US$7,500 tax credit will be granted to consumers when they purchase a new EV.

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Lithium March 2023
The IRA’s Impact on the Supply Chain

Since the Biden administration approved the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in mid-2022, companies have announced an estimated US$35bn of investment in the domestic EV supply chain. The IRA is undoubtedly boosting local manufacturing of batteries and electric vehicles through generous tax incentives.

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EVs & Batteries March 2023
North America Spending Binge

The US is making massive federal investments to build up a domestic supply chain for batteries and EVs. Last year’s Inflation Reduction Act lays out US$370bn in climate spending over a decade. US states and localities have also promised EV-related companies nearly US$14bn in subsidies as of October 2022.

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Gold March 2023
New Era of Gold Mega Deals

Newmont’s US$17bn offer for Newcrest last month has lifted expectations of a new wave of consolidation, particularly at the big end of the gold sector. While the US miner’s all-share offer was unanimously rejected by its Australian rival’s board, the world’s largest gold miner will now gain access to non-public information to allow it to decide whether to make an improved bid.

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Iron Ore March 2023
China Baowu’s Iron Ore Map

China Baowu Group, the world’s largest steelmaker, produced 132Mt of crude steel in 2022, up 10% year on year. The company has been restructuring in recent years with the aim of producing 200Mt of crude steel by 2025, accounting for 15% of the global market.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) March 2023
The War’s Impact on Russia’s Exports - One Year On

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 rattled the global energy markets, as Russia dominated the global oil and gas industry for decades prior to the invasion. One year on, what’s been the impact on Russia’s exports?

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Zinc March 2023
End-Uses of Zinc…Which Aren’t Galvanising

The main use of zinc is galvanising steel…but what other end uses does zinc have? While zinc is most commonly, around 60%, used as a protective coating for steel to prevent rusting, it has many other critical uses.

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Hydrogen March 2023
Global Low Carbon Hydrogen

The global hydrogen energy demand is expected to more than double from 1,200TWh this year to 2,800TWh by 2030. The numbers of countries with supportive policies for hydrogen technologies is rising and the global hydrogen demand will be reach 6,500TWh by 2050.

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Nuclear March 2023
Can Nuclear Save Europe?

Following the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine over 2022, energy security has been a constant discussion in Europe. In certain countries, such as France, nuclear is the solution to energy security across the EU. For others, such as Germany, permanent shutdowns of nuclear reactors have already begun.

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Metallurgical Coal March 2023
A Tale of Two Strategies

The acceleration of the global energy transition has led to growing pressure for mining companies to divest from coal mining assets. Pressure to dissociate from coal extraction has now begun to extend beyond the abandonment of thermal coal operations to include metallurgical coal. This pressure has mostly affected diversified miners.

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Thermal Coal in Transition March 2023
NSW’s Coal to Alms

Coal companies in Australia are still feeling the ripple effects of the war on Ukraine, as the New South Wales (NSW) State Government announces a Coal Reservation policy requiring NSW coal producers to put aside a portion of quarterly productions for domestic power plants.

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Aluminium March 2023
O Bauxite, Where Art Thou?

Rising aluminium demand is driving up the entire value chain. China lays at the centre of aluminium and alumina production, which makes it the predominant player when it comes to capacity and production developments. Yet, with limited domestic supplies, China must reach out to international markets to meet the demand for bauxite, the feed material of the industry.

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Steel March 2023
The Silver Bullet

Steel producers are looking to realise their decarbonisation plans by increasing steel scrap usage. In recent times, major steel producers have acquired steel scrap recycling companies to secure a reliable source of metallics raw material input. Steel scrap is the silver bullet to steel producers offering a solution for decarbonisation in both BF/BOF and EAF operations for the production of green steel.

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Copper March 2023
Copper Ore Grade Trends

The average grade of copper ore mined has declined by 1.6% per year over the past 17 years from 0.75% in 2005 to 0.57% in 2022. The fall is due to declining grades at some of the largest, long-life mines and the development of new low-grade mines. The declining grade trend will continue because of the same two factors.

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Steel February 2023
What’s Your Decarbonisation Plan?

Europe has targeted a reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, from 1990 levels. Consequently, steel producers in Europe will lead the green steel transition with a signification number of companies deciding to implement Carbon Direct Avoidance. This means shutting down existing BF/BOF and investing in EAF and DRI steelmaking technology.

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Thermal Coal in Transition February 2023
Which Way the Trade Flows

The Australian thermal coal sector has been rocked by a series of recent developments. AME forecasts that Australia will export 213Mt of thermal coal in 2023, up by 11% from 2022 levels. Production will be supported by the restart of New Acland and Dartbrook coal mines and more favourable weather.

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Hydrogen February 2023
Low Carbon Hydrogen in North America

AME forecasts hydrogen demand in North America will reach up to 43Mtpa by 2030 and 156Mtpa by 2050. This is 1.7 and 6 times respectively that of current demand in the region and ~25% of global hydrogen demand in 2050.

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LNG February 2023
Feast for Me, Famine for Thee: MENA’s Gas Disparity

Investment in gas and LNG from the Middle East and North Africa will expand rapidly out to 2030, but will remain focused on existing suppliers unless significant political shifts are achieved.

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Metallurgical Coal February 2023
China Gets Back in on Australian Coal

AME expects that demand for coal will significantly improve in the new year with China prepared to lift a two-year old unofficial ban on Australian coal imports. The Chinese government essentially banned Australian coal imports in early October 2020 and has only allowed customs clearance for Australian coal loaded on vessels during China's energy crisis in late 2021.

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Iron Ore February 2023
Simandou Iron Ore Project

As China emerges from the pandemic determined to stabilise its economy, state-owned steel giant Baowu Group has been given the green light by Beijing to ensure that first production by 2025 becomes a reality. In December 2022, Baowu agreed terms with joint venture partners including Rio Tinto on developing infrastructure for the Simandou iron ore project.

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Nickel February 2023
Nickel Needed for the European Euphoria

Europe is the second largest finished demand source after Asia, contributing to ~9.1% of global demand. In 2022, it is forecast to consume 261kt of nickel. Soaring energy prices in the region has greatly reduced stainless-steel production.

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EVs & Batteries February 2023
EVs Defy Expectations

We expect global EV sales to reach 13.6m in 2023, rising 26% from an estimated 10.8m in 2022. By 2025, we expect sales to reach 19.8m, reaching a market share of 22%. There are now almost 30m EVs on the road, up from just 10m at the end of 2020. The market share of electric cars has also tripled since 2020, reaching 13% last year.

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Solar Farms February 2023
US Expands Solar

Total renewable energy capacity in the United States is set to expand to 470GW by the end of 2023, producing 1100TWh of clean energy, 7% higher than last year.

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Copper February 2023
New Players Coming

China has seen fast growth in its copper smelting capacity in the last decade, with its primary smelting output doubling to 8.4Mt in 2022 from 4.2Mt in 2013. China will remain the global centre of primary smelters; however, its growth rate will slow. AME forecasts Chinese primary smelters' consumption of copper in concentrate to grow at a CAGR of 1.6% in the next five years, to reach 9,261kt in 2027. This is much lower than the CAGR of 4.8% seen in the past five years.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) February 2023
Germany’s Herculean Energy Task

AME’s 2022 full year forecast for Germany’s natural gas demand is 207MMcmpd, a substantial 16% drop year on year. In 2023, demand is forecast to decline a further 7% to 195MMcmpd. Natural gas consumption in Germany decreased in the December quarter with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline still closed and supplies via other routes heavily restricted.

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Lithium February 2023
Canada’s Lithium Rush

Lithium miners are rushing to Canada to take advantage of the mining-friendly jurisdiction. Under its Critical Minerals Strategy, Canada will fast-track the development of critical minerals production, which includes lithium and other battery metals. Canada’s lithium supply is expected to reach 54kt LCE in 2023.

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Wind Farms February 2023
China’s Wind Energy Target

China remains dominant in the manufacture of wind turbines and the trade of wind energy technology. The country’s investment in the wind energy supply chain has been effective in bringing down global costs with multiple benefits for the clean energy transition.

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Zinc February 2023
Used Lead-Acid Battery (ULAB) Recycling

Around 85% of all lead produced goes into lead-acid batteries. Despite having been in use for over 160 years, the lead-acid battery is nevertheless widely used and is still a growing market. While lithium-ion batteries are increasingly replacing traditional lead-ion batteries, in some applications there remains a need for the humble lead-acid battery.

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Hydrogen January 2023
Hydrogen Year in Review (2022)

Surging gas and electricity price following Russia invasion of Ukraine have increased hydrogen price in Europe, more than four times that of Australia and Middle East. The price of European blue hydrogen remained under US$9/kg in 2022 which is yet 1.4 times higher than the blue hydrogen in the Middle East.

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Solar Farms January 2023
Solar PV Makes up Biggest Renewable Share in 2022 Solar PV Makes up Biggest Renewable Share in 2022

The global solar photovoltaic share among all renewable sources reached almost 60% in 2022, up from 51% the year before. In 2022, 118GW of additional utility scale-solar PV capacity was installed globally, nearly 50% higher than in 2021. Net distributed PV capacity additions reached 72GW last year, similar to the year before but 20% higher than in 2020.

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Wind Farms January 2023
Wind Year in Review (2022)

Policies remain supportive for wind deployment in a bid to narrow the gap to net zero by 2050 across much of the world. Policies continue to drive capacity growth, including auctions, feed-in tariffs, and contracts for difference across onshore and offshore wind projects.

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Gold January 2023
Gold Year in Review (2022)

As the economy around the world continued to recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created global uncertainty, which drove a rally in gold prices. During the first quarter of the year, the precious metal was set for its best performance since August 2020 when prices were over US$2,000/oz. But gold lost some of those early gains as investors shifted focus to monetary policy and higher bond yields.

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Nickel January 2023
Nickel Year in Review (2022)

The price of nickel was wildly volatile in 2022, with the European spot price surging to an unprecedented intraday US$100,000/t in March. The price was then capped at US$45,721/t, and trading was forcibly suspended on the LME for nine days as the market recovered.

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Thermal Coal in Transition January 2023
Thermal Coal Year in Review (2022)

The abrupt turmoil to Russian gas exports to Europe following the invasion of Ukraine has distorted the dynamics of energy supply trade in 2022. Supply chain disruptions related to the Covid-19 pandemic, labour shortages and severe rainfall have resulted in an unprecedented estimated global deficit of -42Mt of thermal coal in 2022.

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Aluminium January 2023
Aluminium Year in Review (2022)

Through 2022, aluminium markets have been affected by significant events in both Europe and China. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine generated uncertainty for supply coming from the second largest producing country along with its flow-on impact on global energy markets. Energy rationing in China affected production from the largest producing country early in the year while its continued pursuit of a zero-covid policy crimped demand.

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LNG January 2023
LNG Year in Review (2022)

The year 2022 saw serious turbulence in health policy, the energy market and global diplomacy. Lockdowns in China to mitigate the Covid-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine upset energy markets as sanctions and supply cuts attempted to find a balance with industry shutdowns and reduced demand.

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Iron Ore January 2023
Iron Ore Year in Review (2022)

AME‘s iron ore 62% spot price averaged US$122/t over 2022, a decrease of 24% from US$161/t in 2021. The 65% and 58% iron ore spot price averaged US$139/t and US$94/t in 2021, down by 25% and 26% year on year, respectively.

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Copper January 2023
Copper Year in Review (2022)

The copper price started 2022 at around US$9,700/t, increasing slowly over the first three months, with the monthly average AME Europe copper prices increasing to US$10,272/t in March.

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Lithium January 2023
Lithium Year in Review (2022)

The lithium market had an action-packed year in 2022, after a busy period in 2021 that saw lithium prices more than triple. At the start of 2022, Chinese lithium carbonate prices started trading at around the US$40,000/t mark, up over 400% since January 2021.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) January 2023
Gas in Transition (Oil) Year in Review (2022)

The year 2022 brought global economic growth following the 2021 Covid-19 caused downturn, largely tied to the development and global distribution of Covid-19 vaccines. High energy prices and supply chain pressures spurred record-high inflation and a growing energy crunch.

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Steel January 2023
Steel Year in Review (2022)

The average US price for HRC decreased significantly during the 11 months to November, ending at US$664/t, down 58% since the beginning of the year. In the same period, HRC prices in Europe, China and Asia followed the same trend and ended at US$647/t, down 37.4%; US$471/t, down 30.8%; and US$545/t, down 33.9%, respectively.

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EVs & Batteries January 2023
EVs & Batteries Year in Review (2022)

Even as the global economic outlook turned increasingly gloomy this year, electric vehicles continued to shine. We expect global EV sales to reach 10.9m in 2022, taking a market share of 13%. That’s up from 6.6m in 2021, and just 3.1m in 2020.

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Metallurgical Coal January 2023
Metallurgical Coal Year in Review (2022)

Metallurgical coal prices were unpredictable in 2022, with the Russia-Ukraine war causing massive disruptions to the market. Prices peaked at US$600/t and reached a low at US$200/t during the year. The year also marked the first time that thermal coal prices overtook metallurgical coal prices, trading at a significant premium. This has seen product switching of the two, adding more eccentricity in the market.

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Zinc January 2023
Zinc Year in Review (2022)

The year 2022 proved a challenging year for the lead, and particularly, the zinc industry. Coming into the year, prices were at an all-time high with the European zinc spot price sitting at US$3,610/t. This was down to smelter curbs arising from surging energy costs in Europe. While initially optimistic the situation would resolve during 2022, the global landscape and world events had other ideas.

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Gold December 2022
Growth Potential in Ghana’s Gold?

In 2018, Ghana’s gold output of 4.8Moz surpassed South Africa’s 4.1Moz for the first time to make the country Africa’s largest gold producer—a position it has held ever since. Gold production from Ghana is expected to be 4.3Moz in 2022, up 8% from 4.1Moz in 2021.

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Steel December 2022
India’s Utopian Economy

AME’s finished steel demand forecast for India is 114Mt in 2022 and 119Mt in 2023, up 7% and 5%, respectively, year on year. Due to its population size, India is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

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Solar Farms December 2022
Solar Targets in China

China’s plan for the next five years is to progress modernisation and efficiency gains across its industry and energy systems towards higher value and cleaner production. The country’s energy transition continues to be boosted by sectoral peaking plans and increasing national and provincial ambition on the rapid scale up of renewables.

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Metallurgical Coal December 2022
US No Longer a Swing Producer but a Vital Producer

Despite being the third largest producer of export metallurgical coal, the United States has always been known as the “swing producer”. High-cost US producers have felt the impact of declining coal prices and have been particularly susceptible to any oversupply in the market.

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Thermal Coal in Transition December 2022
Can Vietnam Go Green?

Clean energy investment is expected to exceed US$1.4tn in 2022, following a 12% annual growth in 2021. However, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires an estimate of over US$4tn in annual clean-energy investment.

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Aluminium December 2022
What’s Driving Japan’s Aluminium Demand?

Despite being the fifth largest primary aluminium demand country, Japan no longer possesses any domestic production capacity. As such, the country is dependent on imports to meet its requirements.

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Nickel December 2022
O Canada, Nickel from the True North

A growing EV market is driving the growth of the batteries market, which in turn fuels finished nickel demand. In 2022 demand for battery-grade nickel is forecast to be 290kt. Many auto manufacturers want ‘clean’ nickel to justify the production of EVs for the energy transition.

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LNG December 2022
Feeding Europe’s Hunger for Gas in 2023

The beginning of 2022 saw the European gas market change irrevocably. The collapse of Russian gas exports to Europe has left the continent without sufficient supply – short over 100bcm of gas flow - and governments have been scrambling to find a way to keep the lights on and the heaters working for the 2022-23 winter.

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Iron Ore December 2022
New Projects Pop-up in Brazil

Brazil is expected to produce a total of 373Mt of iron ore in 2022, down 4.8% year on year, primarily due to bad weather seen during the March Quarter. Production will grow significantly to 536Mt in 2040.

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Copper December 2022
Peru's Copper Supply

Peru holds reserves of 87Mt of contained copper, accounting for 10% of the world’s total reserves, ranking second globally. Peru is also the world’s second-largest producer of copper concentrate, producing approximately 13% of the total global copper concentrate supply.

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Nuclear December 2022
Nuclear Year in Review (2022)

2022 has been an eventful year for both the nuclear industry and uranium market. Global sentiment towards nuclear power started a shift in 2021 and continued to improve over 2022.

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Oil Refineries December 2022
Oil Refineries Year in Review (2022)

Refining profits surged globally this year on fears of a potential gasoil shortage, as buyers avoided Russian supplies despite soaring feedstock costs elsewhere. AME’s full year 2022 forecast for the global average crack spread price is US$51/bbl.

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Hydrogen December 2022
Green Hydrogen for Steel

Steel production accounts for 8-10% of total global CO2 emission. It has been estimated zero-CO2 emission steel production can be achieved by 2050 with investment of ~US$280bn. This includes capacity enhancement and low emission retrofitting.