How will the global energy mix transform to reach net-zero emissions?

Global Ratings and Carbon Emissions (GRACE) is AME's long-term scenario analysis on the future of the energy economy.

It tracks the path towards reaching net-zero emissions, which we expect will be achieved in 2057, and the changes in global energy demand and supply over this time, on a country and energy source basis.

GRACE provides insights on trends in energy demand and supply, and what they mean for energy security, environmental protection and economic development.

Primary Energy Demand

GRACE charts how the primary energy demand will change over time and the rate at which energy industries will grow or decline on the path to net-zero in 2057. We track total carbon emissions and annual changes over this time.

This is achieved by aggregating energy consumption and supply data on a country and energy source basis and modelling the changes over the short, medium and long-term.

At what rate will renewable energies, such as solar and wind, grow? Which countries are going to drive demand for energy, and which countries will supply it? What does the trajectory for carbon emissions look like? Our GRACE model will answer these questions.

Getting on track

As economies and energy markets recover from the impact of the pandemic, the fundamental transition towards decarbonising energy systems, and shifting away from fossil fuels, will continue.

Reaching net-zero means rapidly accelerating the deployment of renewable energy systems to dramatically increase the use of electricity in industry, transport and buildings. This will require huge increases in electricity system flexibility, such as batteries, to ensure reliable supplies.

Energy efficiency measures, driven by investment and government policy to meet higher climate ambitions, will be required to reduce the energy intensity of the economy.

New low-emissions industries will become increasingly mainstream. Carbon capture and storage technologies will need to be applied to processes that emit carbon dioxide, such as power generation and cement production. The use of biofuels and synthetic fuels for planes and ships will lower emissions, as will greater recycling in steel, aluminium and plastics.