AME forecasts that oil demand growth will remain strong and Brent crude oil will average US$100/bbl in the June quarter of 2022 as world oil supply tightens and production lags rising demand with inventories at multi-year lows.

AME’s Asian Composite LNG price forecast for the June quarter is US$28/MMBtu. AME sees the price remaining high through to the middle of the June quarter as European geopolitics disrupts the market.

AME’s March and June quarter 2022 forecasts for the global average crack spread price are US$21/bbl and US$29/bbl, respectively. Despite the continuous rise in crude oil prices raising the input costs for refiners, the price of refined products has risen more, increasing the spread and beefing up the bottom line for refiners.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is fuelling higher commodity prices, on the back of a tight market in Europe and Australia is expected to reap the benefits, with a massive surge in earnings from natural resources

AME forecasts the Newcastle 6,300 spot price to average US$250/t in the June quarter of 2022. Europe’s need to secure energy supply could lead to a delay in coal plant closures and the temporary reopening of closed power plants.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine boosted iron ore prices in early March. Disruptions to iron ore exports from Russia and Ukraine have reportedly prompted some European buyers to seek cargoes from further afield, potentially tightening global supplies.

Average steel prices increased in Europe in the March quarter due to rising energy costs, supply constraints, and the crisis in Ukraine.

Copper prices briefly touched record highs in early March amid fears that sanctions imposed on Russia, after the escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict, could further tighten already-tight supply. Market sentiment has started to see calm return to some extent and copper prices have retreated but remain at a high level.

The nickel market was rocked to the core in March when a disruption to open trade took place. Prices surged to over US$100,000/t on the LME and trading was forced into suspension.

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has driven zinc prices to record highs which currently show no sign of slowing.

Record pricing levels for primary aluminium metal were not helped by Russia’s actions in Ukraine, however, with predominately individuals facing sanction, as opposed to companies’, commodity movements have continued, though uncertainty on future measures certainly remains.

Gold prices have been relatively steady despite all the predictions, and the slight upward trend continues—the inflation and the geopolitical tension after the Russian invasion of Ukraine play an essential role in the precious metal.